The worst of both worlds

So it turns out that Romania’s Liberals, the PNL, have not changed in the slightest. For six months, ever since the PSD (together with the far-right AUR) brought down the PNL-led government (of which, checks notes, PSD was also part), that same PNL (give or take its PSD-in-disguise members, and there are quite a few) has been telling anyone who will listen that it will never again govern with the PSD. Never again.

I almost, almost believed them. PNL stood firm even when Romania’s president, Nicușor Dan, tried to push a PSD government through parliament, albeit one which would have in theory been led by one of those ‘PSD liberals’ (in that case, Adrian Veștea).

On Tuesday, however, PNL will vote to install a PSD government. PNL will not be part of the government (it will formally go into opposition), but it will help get it over the line. There will likely be some dissent, with a few, decent PNL MPs not toeing the party line, but most will do as they are told. In doing so, they risk condemning the PNL to eternal obscurity and, quite possibly, irrelevance.

The incoming PSD government, behind the facade provided by the latest patsy, Luca Niculescu, a journalist and diplomat, will undo everything Ilie Bolojan has achieved over the past year and a bit, not least reducing Romania’s deficit and balancing some (although certainly not all) books. Romania’s economic outlook is bleak for the near term (there is no money) and critical public services risk running out of funds. This is the reason that Bolojan and his allies have given for voting to install Niculescu’s government. Budget adjustments need to be made this coming week and the current, interim administration (which has limited powers) cannot do so. To avoid a situation in which hospitals run out of money and ambulances run out of petrol, PNL has no choice, we are told. Its apologists have called it brave.

Now, regular readers will know that I have in fact been advocating for a PSD-led government for some time. Ideally, I have written, PSD would govern with AUR, assuming full responsibility for the mess Romania is about to face (with both parties taking a massive hit to their popularity ahead of the next scheduled parliamentary election, in 2028). It might have been chaos, it might have been ugly, but the medium-term benefits (an erosion of support for PSD and AUR) would have (hugely) surpassed any short-term shock. What we have in fact ended up with is the worst of both worlds: Romania will suffer that short-term chaos and shock, but both PSD (which can hide behind the nominally independent Niculescu, despite the fact that he will have little say in how the country is run) and AUR (not part of the government at all) will not see a fall in their support. AUR, in fact, will probably see its numbers grow. The scenario that Romania’s political class should be working at all costs to avoid—AUR winning enough seats in 2028 to govern alone—now looks like the most likely outcome. Well done everybody.

The largest portion of the blame for the situation in which Romania finds itself rests with the president. Dan has nominated just four potential prime ministers in six months. Had he played his cards better, Romania could by now have organised new parliamentary elections which, even if they did not provide a clear cut result, would have reshuffled the pack and reset the clock. Instead, dithering and indecisiveness have brought us to a situation in which the only real winners are the extremists in AUR. Again, well done everybody.

Next, a word on USR, Romania’s so-called progressive party which often resembles a cult given its insistence on ideological purity. USR, until now firmly allied with PNL, has said it will not be voting for Niculescu’s government on Tuesday and for that it deserves praise. Whether or not that decision will boost its (currently modest) levels of support is something that remains to be seen.

Finally, a sentence or two on Niculescu. His complete lack of objections to the list of ministers PSD has proposed (a list which includes at least one with a penal background) says a great deal about how much power he will actually have. He will find out quickly that PSD is not a partner to be trusted for very long. Give it a few months and PSD will be screaming loudly that it simply can’t work with him. He will be the scapegoat for everything that is about to go wrong. Does he really want to be prime minister that much? He has two days to come to his senses.