The Siegfried Line

A week or so late (arguably, about four months late), Romania's president, Nicușor Dan, yesterday nominated a new prime minister, the PNL's Siegfried Mureșan, an experienced MEP with a decent amount of political capital in Brussels (less, it might be argued, at home). Mureșan was proposed by both the PNL and USR quite some time ago, which makes it a bit of a mystery as to why, yesterday, on hearing that he had been officially nominated PM, he needed time to "think about it". His thought process took just five minutes, however, at which point he promptly announced (on Facebook!—he's clearly a very modern politician) that he had accepted the president's offer. He now has 10 days to form a government and get it through parliament. Together, PNL, USR, and allies UDMR are 64 votes short of the 233 they need. They can almost certainly rely on the 17 votes of the national minorities, which brings the deficit down to 47. Still some way to go.

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Amongst the Romanian commentariat (at least those whose words are worth reading, and there aren't many of those) there are two schools of thought regarding the Mureșan nomination.

The first posits that Dan has set Mureșan up to fail. If the proposed cabinet does not make it through parliament, Dan would be free to call an election (as Mureșan would be the second proposed PM to be rejected by parliament). However, Dan doesn't have to: there is no obligation for him to dissolve parliament. He could simply nominate another PM. Notably, Dan said nothing explicit yesterday about calling an election if Mureșan's cabinet came up short. That has been interpreted to mean that another nomination would follow, likely PSD leader Sorin Grindeanu. That Grindeanu nomination would, however, come with the clear warning that this was parliament's last chance before it is dissolved and an election called. Grindeanu, with support from AUR and the smaller extremist parties, as well as a few PNL MPs worried about losing their seats, would then likely become PM. That's what Dan wants, this school of thought goes. Nominating Mureșan first (and then watching him fail) can allow him to say that, "Well, I tried everything. I suppose I'll just have to hand power to the PSD".

The second group (who still desperately want to believe that Dan is a good guy) think that Mureșan actually has a real chance of succeeding. Fear of an election will force the PSD into line (or, at least, enough of them), they say. Dan's really got them in checkmate this time.

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Your correspondent does not buy into either scenario. I am inclined to think that Mureșan might indeed get through parliament—but for other reasons. Recent weeks have proven beyond doubt that PSD and AUR (plus those extremist smaller parties) have a working majority in parliament. They can already do more or less whatever they want, regardless of whose name is above the door of the PM's office. They will be more than happy to carry on passing their pet projects while letting the PNL and USR take the blame for the tough year or two ahead (Romania is skint) before reaping the rewards at the election in 2028.

This would be the worst outcome. So it's probably what we will get. Mureșan would make a good PM in different circumstances at a different time. But now is not that time.